Posted: Sunday June 14, 2026
The biggest major of the summer is nearly here. The US Open tees off on Thursday at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York — and our selections will be up on Wednesday evening before a shot is hit.
Why Shinnecock Hills is Different
Shinnecock Hills is one of the most demanding venues in world golf. Links-style in feel, exposed to the coastal winds off Long Island, with firm and fast conditions that punish anything less than precise ball-striking and smart course management.
This is not a course where you bomb and gouge your way around. Shinnecock rewards players who shape the ball, manage their game, and stay patient when the conditions turn against them. The last time the US Open was held here, the winning score was under par — but only just. Historically, this course has handed out some of the toughest winning scores in major championship history. Over par is always in play.
Wind is the defining factor. Tee time in the morning or the afternoon can be the difference between a benign scoring round and a war. Our analysis factors in the forecast, the draw, and how each contender performs when conditions are at their most demanding.
What We’re Looking At
When our model runs the field for a US Open at Shinnecock, it’s weighing up:
Course fit — ball-strikers who work the ball and hit fairways. Big hitters who can’t control their driver will struggle on these exposed fairways with heavy rough.
Links and firm-ground form — players who have performed on similar surfaces (fast, firm, windy) tend to transfer that form. This is not a week for players who only shine on soft, receptive tour setups.
Weather and tee times — the draw matters enormously at Shinnecock. We’ll be tracking the forecast and factoring in which sessions are likely to play easier or harder.
Major championship record — Shinnecock finds you out mentally as much as it does technically. Players with a track record of competing in majors under pressure are given extra weight.
Current form — hot form coming in matters, but course fit overrides it here more than at almost any other event.
Selections on Wednesday
We’ll have our US Open selections live on Wednesday evening — giving you time to get on at a competitive price before round one begins Thursday morning.
This is one of the best events of the year for value-hunting. 156-player field, a course that levels the playing field, and genuine uncertainty about who thrives in the conditions. Our analysis thrives in exactly this kind of setup.
Blog post with full analysis drops Wednesday. Everything goes on here and Substack at the same time.
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Last year’s US Open winner JJ Spaun
