Ryan Fox has won the 154th Open Championship at Royal Birkdale, and it was a tough week for the selections overall. An honest account of how things went.
Tommy Fleetwood was the one bright spot, earning a place return at 16/1 as the local lad delivered in front of his home crowd. The logic was sound and the result reflected that, even if the outright win we were looking for didn’t materialise.
Robert MacIntyre started the tournament brilliantly at -3 after round one — exactly the tee time and course-fit logic we had outlined before a ball was struck — but faded over the weekend as he has done before at this level. Jon Rahm and Ludvig Aberg both made the right kind of start without finding the sustained form needed to challenge at the top. Rory McIlroy and Justin Rose, both additional selections, also failed to fire.
Fox’s win was one that very few had projected and the market hadn’t priced. That happens at The Open more than almost any other major — links golf has a way of rewarding players who find form on the week regardless of what the numbers say going in.
Horse racing continues next week. Full P&L always live at twistertipster.com.
18+ | Past results do not guarantee future returns | Please analyse responsibly
We are adding two extra selections for The Open Championship at Royal Birkdale.
This is not about adding names for the sake of it. Both players have specific reasons to be on the card: course history, current form, conditions and price.
Justin Rose — 30/1 Each-Way
Stake: 1pt each-way Each-way terms: 8 places
Justin Rose is the first added selection, and there is a very clear Royal Birkdale angle here.
This is the course where Rose announced himself to the golfing world as a 17-year-old amateur in 1998, finishing tied fourth after that famous chip-in on the 18th. That was not just a romantic moment; it remains one of the great amateur performances in Open history, and it gives him a genuine connection with this venue.
The case is not only nostalgic, though. Rose was runner-up at The Open two years ago at Royal Troon and still looks very capable of contending in this type of test. Royal Birkdale should reward controlled tee-to-green golf, fairways found, patience and a sharp short game. Those are areas where Rose can still compete strongly when he is on.
The 30/1 price is also important. With eight places available, he does not need to win for the selection to make sense. He simply needs to do what he has done many times in major championships: stay patient, avoid big mistakes, and work his way into the week.
At this stage of his career, Rose winning The Open at Royal Birkdale would be a huge story. But at 30/1 with eight places, we do not need to rely only on the fairytale. The place terms make him a sensible each-way addition.
Selection: Justin Rose — 1pt each-way at 30/1, 8 places
Rory McIlroy — 10/1 Win
Stake: 2pts win**
Rory McIlroy is the second added selection, and he is a win-only play.
At 10/1, this is not an each-way price for our purposes. The reason to be with Rory is simple: if he plays his best golf, he can win this.
He has strong Open Championship credentials, including a tied-fourth finish at Royal Birkdale in 2017 and three top-seven finishes in his last four Open starts. He also arrives as the defending Masters champion, having successfully defended at Augusta earlier this year, so there is no question about whether he can still close out the very biggest events.
The course should also suit him better than some might think. Royal Birkdale is firm, fast and exposed, but it is also regarded as one of the fairer links courses. Rory has spoken positively about the venue, particularly the way good shots on the fairways tend to be rewarded rather than kicked into random trouble. That matters because his driving remains one of the biggest weapons in golf.
The concern is the price. At 10/1, we need him to win, and there is not much margin for error. But this is the one short-priced player we are willing to add because the course record, major form and current level all line up.
This is a stronger-staked play than Rose, but still controlled.
Selection: Rory McIlroy — 2pts win at 10/1 (9/1 fine too)
Final staking
Justin Rose — 1pt each-way at 30/1, 8 places Rory McIlroy — 2pts win at 10/1
Rose gives us the each-way value and course-history angle. Rory gives us the strongest win-only play.
The 154th Open Championship begins at Royal Birkdale on Thursday, and it sets up as one of the most intriguing major tests in years. The course is firm and fast, and the forecast is benign by links standards — very low wind for the opening two rounds, which shifts the premium firmly onto iron precision and course management over wind-reading and damage limitation.
The AI model has run a full analysis of the 156-player field. Four each-way outrights and two first round leader plays. Here is the full slate.
OUTRIGHTS
Jon Rahm — 25/1, 1 pt each way, 7 places, 1/5 odds
Rahm sits inside the top five in the field by model win probability, and crucially the analysis finds genuine value at 25/1 — the model prices him longer than the sharpest markets, meaning the price is right before a ball is struck. His strokes gained profile is elite across the board: outstanding off the tee, excellent approach play, and the controlled ball flight that Royal Birkdale consistently rewards. He goes out early Thursday morning at 10:09 in the calmest conditions of the day. The one honest note of caution is his putting on links greens, which is the relative soft spot in an otherwise world-class profile. At 25/1 with seven places, the model says take it.
Ludvig Aberg — 30/1, 1 pt each way, 8 places, 1/5 odds
Of all the players showing model value, Aberg carries the most outstanding approach play numbers — and approach play is the single most predictive skill at Royal Birkdale. The model shows a clear edge at 30/1, and his profile fits this course precisely: long enough to get in close on a firm, fast surface, precise enough with his irons to hold the scores together when Birkdale turns demanding. Eight places at 30/1 is serious each-way territory for a player ranked inside the top ten in the field by the analysis.
Tommy Fleetwood — 16/1, 1 pt each way, 8 places, 1/5 odds
Fleetwood is from Southport. He grew up minutes from Royal Birkdale, played this course across his entire junior and early professional career, and understands its rhythms and its punishments better than almost anyone else in a 156-player field. The model rates him third in the field by win probability, and the home-course knowledge at a links major is something no strokes gained number fully captures. Eight places at 16/1 is a substantial each-way opportunity with one of the best players in the world on his home ground. He tees off Thursday at 10:09 alongside Rahm, giving him the best of the morning conditions, with a crowd that will be extraordinary behind him from the first tee.
Robert MacIntyre — 28/1, 1 pt each way, 8 places, 1/5 odds
MacIntyre is Scottish, a natural links golfer, and was our selection last week at the Scottish Open where he finished tied third at 33/1. He carries that form and momentum directly into a course that suits every element of his game. His putting numbers rank among the very best in the field — on links greens, where the ball runs true and the margins are fine, that matters enormously. He tees off at 07:19 Thursday morning, the very first wave out in the calmest conditions of the entire day. Form, course fit, tee time and home-ground confidence all pointing the same direction.
FIRST ROUND LEADER
Min Woo Lee — 60/1, 1 pt each way, 7 places, 1/5 odds
The strongest first round leader value in the model across the entire field. Lee tees off at 09:25 Thursday morning, one of the earliest slots in the draw, on a firm fast course with barely any wind forecast. He is a long, attacking player who likes to go low, and the opening round of an Open Championship in benign conditions on a receptive Birkdale is exactly the scenario his game is built for. 60/1 with seven places is outstanding value.
Justin Thomas — 66/1, 1 pt each way, 7 places, 1/5 odds
The second best first round leader value on the model, also going out in the early morning wave at 09:47. Thomas carries the best short game and putting numbers of all the early-wave starters — and in an 18-hole first round leader market, it is the short game that converts solid ball-striking into low scores and top-of-the-leaderboard positions. 66/1 with a seven-place safety net is significant value.
GLORY DOUBLE
Rahm to win + Min Woo Lee FRL accumulator — 0.25 pt each way
The two model standouts combined into a double. A small each-way stake that returns in the region of 900x if both land. The model’s two sharpest value picks in one play.
All analysis generated by the Twister Tipster AI model. Past results do not guarantee future returns. 18+ only. Please analyse responsibly. Full P&L always live at twistertipster.com.
A good weekend across both racing and golf, and heading into one of the biggest weeks of the sporting calendar with plenty to look forward to.
Horse Racing — Saturday
Three selections on the card at Newmarket and Ascot. Galilean Quality delivered the standout result, winning at 6/4 at Ascot as the model’s most confident call of the day — a horse with a proven record at the trip who the data rated well clear of a small field, and he justified that rating. Wechaad ran into a place at Newmarket at 5/1 which covered the each-way stake. Satono Reve, the headline pick, ran into a place at 5/2 but was a win-only selection so nothing returned there — frustrating, but that’s the nature of playing the win market at short prices. Net on the day: positive.
Horse racing now stands at +4.04pts from 40 settled selections, ROI +5.5%.
Golf — Genesis Scottish Open
Golf returned this week and the AI model gave us something to shout about. Robert MacIntyre, our 33/1 each-way selection, finished tied third at -13 — playing on home soil in Scotland in front of his home crowd, exactly the scenario the model identified as the compelling angle at the price. A full place return at 33/1 each-way is a significant result.
Rory McIlroy was in contention early but dropped away over the final two rounds to finish tied seventh — the win case was there, it just didn’t come off. Tyrrell Hatton finished outside the places. Tom Kim won the event.
Net on golf for the week: +1.60pts.
This Week — The Open Championship
The biggest week in golf is here. The Open Championship is the one we’ve been building towards and the AI model will be running a full analysis of the field this week. Selections will be posted ahead of the first round — follow the site and Substack to make sure you don’t miss them.
Horse racing selections continue as normal alongside The Open throughout the week.
No horse racing selections today – it’s a hot day which may lead to peculiar results and we will keep our powder dry ahead of a busy weekend when we can get more involved.
We can check in on our golf picks though for now. After one round, our selections are currently (as we write) tied 1st (Rory McIlroy), 11th (Robert McIntyre) and 64th (Tyrrell). We are in decent shape then – though Hatton has plenty of work to do to get among the action.
The Genesis Scottish Open gets underway tomorrow and the AI model has identified three players it rates highly for the conditions. Links golf in Scotland rewards ball-strikers who can manage wind, keep the ball in play off the tee, and convert when the course opens up. All three of this week’s selections fit that profile.
Rory McIlroy — 10/1 — 2 pts to finish first
The case for McIlroy at a links event almost writes itself, but the model backs it up with the numbers. He is one of the most complete ball-strikers in the world game, he has a proven record on links layouts, and Scottish coastal conditions are conditions he has thrived in throughout his career. At 10/1, the win case is the only one worth playing — the model rates him as the standout selection this week and the stake reflects that conviction.
Tyrrell Hatton — 33/1 — 1 pt each way (6 places)
Hatton is a player who tends to raise his game when the wind is up and the conditions get difficult. His links record is strong, he attacks the course with a directness that suits target-based links play, and he has shown repeatedly that he performs well on this side of the world. At 33/1 with six places on offer, the each-way value is clear and the model has him well placed in its ratings for this field.
Stake: 1 pt each way (6 places)
Robert McIntyre — 33/1 — 1 pt each way (6 places)
The home factor is real with McIntyre but it is his game rather than the crowd that makes him interesting here. He is a natural links player, comfortable in the wind, and has developed into one of the most consistent performers in European golf over the past two seasons. Playing in front of a home Scottish crowd at a course that suits his eye, the model rates him as excellent each-way value at this price.
Stake: 1 pt each way (6 places)
Total outlay: 6 pts
All selections generated by the Twister Tipster AI model. Analysis based on form, course fit and conditions data. 18+ | Please analyse responsibly | Past results do not guarantee future returns.
It’s a packed week for the model, with selections running across both the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour. Seven plays in total — six at the Travelers Championship and one in Italy — so here’s the full squad and the thinking behind each one.
TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP — TPC RIVER HIGHLANDS
Ludvig Åberg — 16/1 each way (8 places)1pt each way TPC River Highlands is a short, tight par-70 that rewards precise ball-striking and scoring ability over raw power, and that plays straight to Åberg’s strengths. Our analysis has him rated shorter than his current market price, and his draw across the first two days looks favourable.
Min Woo Lee — 45/1 each way (8 places)1pt each way The value play of the week. The model rates him notably shorter than the price on offer, and his top-5/top-10 indicators are strong, which matters for an each-way play in a no-cut field. He’s the more volatile of our two outright selections, so we’ve kept him to a standard 1pt stake.
Min Woo Lee — 40/1 each way, First Round Leader (5 places, 0.5pts each way) We’re doubling up on Min Woo Lee with a first round leader selection. An early Thursday tee time gives him a clean run at the scoring conditions before the course gets tougher later in the day, and the model has this price bigger than it should be.
Min Woo Lee First Round Leader + Outright Winner — 275/1, 0.25pts straight A small glory double combining the FRL angle with the outright case on the same player.
Justin Thomas — 25/1 each way (6 places)1pt each way Thomas has a strong recent history at this specific course — three straight finishes of T9, T5 and T9 here — backed up by six consecutive finishes of T23 or better since early May. His approach play at TPC River Highlands ranks inside the top five in this week’s field for proximity from 15 feet and in.
Russell Henley — 28/1 each way (6 places)1pt each way Henley had a quiet US Open until a strong final round, where he gained well over three strokes on his approach play. TPC River Highlands rewards accuracy, wedge play and putting, which are exactly his strengths — the model has him gaining among the most strokes per round at this course since 2024, behind only Scottie Scheffler and Tommy Fleetwood.
OPEN D’ITALIA — DP WORLD TOUR
Patrick Reed — 14/1 each way (5 places)1pt each way A rare DP World Tour selection, made on current form alone. Reed leads the Race to Dubai heading into this event off the back of two wins and a runner-up in his last three starts, and he shares favouritism in this field. He also has course experience here, having made the cut comfortably the last time the event was played at this venue.
SUMMARY
Seven selections across two tours this week — the bulk of the card at the Travelers Championship, plus a value-driven outing in Italy with Patrick Reed. Full odds, EW terms and the running P&L are always on the Substack site. Subscribe for free!
No way to dress this one up — Jetty May, Signcastle City and Belgarum all missed the frame today, a clean sweep of losses for -6pts on the day. Our pick of the day, Jetty May, went off favourite but fell away and was never competitive in the Thatchers Handicap Chase, Signcastle City was also fancied but couldn’t find the gear change needed over the shorter trip at Newbury, and Belgarum’s each-way claims at Newton Abbot didn’t materialise either. These things happen — three each-way selections, none of them landed, and we take it on the chin.
It leaves the running horse racing total at +0.31pts, still in the black for the year overall despite today’s setback, with the brilliant Royal Ascot week still doing most of the heavy lifting.
Looking to tomorrow
The extreme heat across the UK this week is already causing fixture abandonments and rescheduling at several tracks, and that’s going to shape how we approach the next few days. Rather than force selections onto cards that might not even survive the going or get called off altogether, we’re going to be more considered and more focused on the golf side of things for now. That means the Travelers Championship will be the main event in tomorrow’s update, with racing selections kept to one or two at most — and only where we’re genuinely confident the meeting will go ahead as planned.
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