Date Posted: 15 July 2026

We are adding two extra selections for The Open Championship at Royal Birkdale.

This is not about adding names for the sake of it. Both players have specific reasons to be on the card: course history, current form, conditions and price.

Justin Rose — 30/1 Each-Way

Stake: 1pt each-way
Each-way terms: 8 places

Justin Rose is the first added selection, and there is a very clear Royal Birkdale angle here.

This is the course where Rose announced himself to the golfing world as a 17-year-old amateur in 1998, finishing tied fourth after that famous chip-in on the 18th. That was not just a romantic moment; it remains one of the great amateur performances in Open history, and it gives him a genuine connection with this venue.

The case is not only nostalgic, though. Rose was runner-up at The Open two years ago at Royal Troon and still looks very capable of contending in this type of test. Royal Birkdale should reward controlled tee-to-green golf, fairways found, patience and a sharp short game. Those are areas where Rose can still compete strongly when he is on.

The 30/1 price is also important. With eight places available, he does not need to win for the selection to make sense. He simply needs to do what he has done many times in major championships: stay patient, avoid big mistakes, and work his way into the week.

At this stage of his career, Rose winning The Open at Royal Birkdale would be a huge story. But at 30/1 with eight places, we do not need to rely only on the fairytale. The place terms make him a sensible each-way addition.

Selection: Justin Rose — 1pt each-way at 30/1, 8 places

Rory McIlroy — 10/1 Win

Stake: 2pts win**

Rory McIlroy is the second added selection, and he is a win-only play.

At 10/1, this is not an each-way price for our purposes. The reason to be with Rory is simple: if he plays his best golf, he can win this.

He has strong Open Championship credentials, including a tied-fourth finish at Royal Birkdale in 2017 and three top-seven finishes in his last four Open starts. He also arrives as the defending Masters champion, having successfully defended at Augusta earlier this year, so there is no question about whether he can still close out the very biggest events.

The course should also suit him better than some might think. Royal Birkdale is firm, fast and exposed, but it is also regarded as one of the fairer links courses. Rory has spoken positively about the venue, particularly the way good shots on the fairways tend to be rewarded rather than kicked into random trouble. That matters because his driving remains one of the biggest weapons in golf.

The concern is the price. At 10/1, we need him to win, and there is not much margin for error. But this is the one short-priced player we are willing to add because the course record, major form and current level all line up.

This is a stronger-staked play than Rose, but still controlled.

Selection: Rory McIlroy — 2pts win at 10/1 (9/1 fine too)

Final staking

Justin Rose — 1pt each-way at 30/1, 8 places
Rory McIlroy — 2pts win at 10/1

Rose gives us the each-way value and course-history angle. Rory gives us the strongest win-only play.

Justin Rose

Date Posted: 14 July, 2026

The 154th Open Championship begins at Royal Birkdale on Thursday, and it sets up as one of the most intriguing major tests in years. The course is firm and fast, and the forecast is benign by links standards — very low wind for the opening two rounds, which shifts the premium firmly onto iron precision and course management over wind-reading and damage limitation.

The AI model has run a full analysis of the 156-player field. Four each-way outrights and two first round leader plays. Here is the full slate.

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OUTRIGHTS

Jon Rahm — 25/1, 1 pt each way, 7 places, 1/5 odds

Rahm sits inside the top five in the field by model win probability, and crucially the analysis finds genuine value at 25/1 — the model prices him longer than the sharpest markets, meaning the price is right before a ball is struck. His strokes gained profile is elite across the board: outstanding off the tee, excellent approach play, and the controlled ball flight that Royal Birkdale consistently rewards. He goes out early Thursday morning at 10:09 in the calmest conditions of the day. The one honest note of caution is his putting on links greens, which is the relative soft spot in an otherwise world-class profile. At 25/1 with seven places, the model says take it.

Ludvig Aberg — 30/1, 1 pt each way, 8 places, 1/5 odds

Of all the players showing model value, Aberg carries the most outstanding approach play numbers — and approach play is the single most predictive skill at Royal Birkdale. The model shows a clear edge at 30/1, and his profile fits this course precisely: long enough to get in close on a firm, fast surface, precise enough with his irons to hold the scores together when Birkdale turns demanding. Eight places at 30/1 is serious each-way territory for a player ranked inside the top ten in the field by the analysis.

Tommy Fleetwood — 16/1, 1 pt each way, 8 places, 1/5 odds

Fleetwood is from Southport. He grew up minutes from Royal Birkdale, played this course across his entire junior and early professional career, and understands its rhythms and its punishments better than almost anyone else in a 156-player field. The model rates him third in the field by win probability, and the home-course knowledge at a links major is something no strokes gained number fully captures. Eight places at 16/1 is a substantial each-way opportunity with one of the best players in the world on his home ground. He tees off Thursday at 10:09 alongside Rahm, giving him the best of the morning conditions, with a crowd that will be extraordinary behind him from the first tee.

Robert MacIntyre — 28/1, 1 pt each way, 8 places, 1/5 odds

MacIntyre is Scottish, a natural links golfer, and was our selection last week at the Scottish Open where he finished tied third at 33/1. He carries that form and momentum directly into a course that suits every element of his game. His putting numbers rank among the very best in the field — on links greens, where the ball runs true and the margins are fine, that matters enormously. He tees off at 07:19 Thursday morning, the very first wave out in the calmest conditions of the entire day. Form, course fit, tee time and home-ground confidence all pointing the same direction.

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FIRST ROUND LEADER

Min Woo Lee — 60/1, 1 pt each way, 7 places, 1/5 odds

The strongest first round leader value in the model across the entire field. Lee tees off at 09:25 Thursday morning, one of the earliest slots in the draw, on a firm fast course with barely any wind forecast. He is a long, attacking player who likes to go low, and the opening round of an Open Championship in benign conditions on a receptive Birkdale is exactly the scenario his game is built for. 60/1 with seven places is outstanding value.

Justin Thomas — 66/1, 1 pt each way, 7 places, 1/5 odds

The second best first round leader value on the model, also going out in the early morning wave at 09:47. Thomas carries the best short game and putting numbers of all the early-wave starters — and in an 18-hole first round leader market, it is the short game that converts solid ball-striking into low scores and top-of-the-leaderboard positions. 66/1 with a seven-place safety net is significant value.

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GLORY DOUBLE

Rahm to win + Min Woo Lee FRL accumulator — 0.25 pt each way

The two model standouts combined into a double. A small each-way stake that returns in the region of 900x if both land. The model’s two sharpest value picks in one play.

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All analysis generated by the Twister Tipster AI model. Past results do not guarantee future returns. 18+ only. Please analyse responsibly. Full P&L always live at twistertipster.com.