The race that stops a nation starts at 4am UK time on Tuesday. It’s the 166th Melbourne Cup: 24 runners, two miles (3,200m) at Flemington and A$10 million in prize money. The track was Good 4 on Sunday, but Monday’s rain should turn it soft by the off, and that shapes our plays.
It’s a wide-open handicap, with seven or eight runners who could win. But one horse has the form, the profile and some very serious money behind him.
Our star selections
- Hopewell Rock: 1 pt each way (13/2)
- So You Are: ½ pt each way (10/1)
- Shockletz: ½ pt each way (10/1)
Best UK prices on Monday morning, with firms paying 5 places at 1/5 odds (William Hill, Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and others). Sky Bet pay 6 places at slightly shorter prices. Prices will move, so take the best you can find. No multiple advised.
Hopewell Rock: the big one
George Boughey’s stayer was beaten a short head in the Ebor at York in August, Europe’s richest flat handicap, on good to soft ground in a field of 22. Three weeks before that he won a big handicap at Goodwood, coming from the back on the bridle. He settles, travels and finishes strongly, which is exactly what a two-mile Cup with a strong pace needs.
He isn’t alone in thinking so. At Melbourne’s Call of the Card on Saturday night, JP McManus and Paul Byrne put A$1 million on Hopewell Rock at around 9/1, their biggest single bet of the night, even though McManus has two runners of his own in the race. McManus said they simply thought he was the most likely winner.
Zac Lloyd rides from barrier 15 with a fair 54.5kg. Two miles is a little further than he’s raced, but everything about the way he finishes says he’ll stay.
So You Are: in form and drawn well
Four wins in a row for Bjorn Baker, three of them Group 3s over 2,400m to 2,600m. Handles any ground, which matters with rain on the way, and barrier 7 with 54kg is a lovely spot. Two miles is new, but the improvement has been steady. The same big-betting team also backed So You Are heavily.
Shockletz: the weight could do it
The lightest weight in the race at 51kg, and unbeaten in three runs at 2,500m for Ciaron Maher. Barrier 17 means a patient ride from the back, but with a strong pace expected, Shockletz can come late while the others carry more weight. The step up to two miles is the question; the weight could be the answer.
The ones to beat
Point Of Law, the favourite, drew well in barrier 9 and is lightly weighted, but soft ground is a question for him. Joseph O’Brien’s Trustyourinstinct, ridden by James McDonald, is classy but would prefer a drier track. Last year’s second and third, Goodie Two Shoes and Middle Earth, are both back. And Juja Kibo, winner of the Metropolitan and the Moonee Valley Cup, will love any rain.
How to follow it
The full field with barriers, weights, best prices and last year’s result is on the Racing Brief Melbourne Cup page. The result goes on our free Telegram channel as soon as it’s in: t.me/racingbrief.
18+ only. Please enjoy your racing responsibly. These special plays sit outside the daily Nap record.
