Date Posted: Wednesday June 24, 2026
It’s a packed week for the model, with selections running across both the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour. Seven plays in total — six at the Travelers Championship and one in Italy — so here’s the full squad and the thinking behind each one.
TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP — TPC RIVER HIGHLANDS
Ludvig Åberg — 16/1 each way (8 places) 1pt each way
TPC River Highlands is a short, tight par-70 that rewards precise ball-striking and scoring ability over raw power, and that plays straight to Åberg’s strengths. Our analysis has him rated shorter than his current market price, and his draw across the first two days looks favourable.
Min Woo Lee — 45/1 each way (8 places) 1pt each way
The value play of the week. The model rates him notably shorter than the price on offer, and his top-5/top-10 indicators are strong, which matters for an each-way play in a no-cut field. He’s the more volatile of our two outright selections, so we’ve kept him to a standard 1pt stake.
Min Woo Lee — 40/1 each way, First Round Leader (5 places, 0.5pts each way)
We’re doubling up on Min Woo Lee with a first round leader selection. An early Thursday tee time gives him a clean run at the scoring conditions before the course gets tougher later in the day, and the model has this price bigger than it should be.
Min Woo Lee First Round Leader + Outright Winner — 275/1, 0.25pts straight
A small glory double combining the FRL angle with the outright case on the same player.
Justin Thomas — 25/1 each way (6 places) 1pt each way
Thomas has a strong recent history at this specific course — three straight finishes of T9, T5 and T9 here — backed up by six consecutive finishes of T23 or better since early May. His approach play at TPC River Highlands ranks inside the top five in this week’s field for proximity from 15 feet and in.
Russell Henley — 28/1 each way (6 places) 1pt each way
Henley had a quiet US Open until a strong final round, where he gained well over three strokes on his approach play. TPC River Highlands rewards accuracy, wedge play and putting, which are exactly his strengths — the model has him gaining among the most strokes per round at this course since 2024, behind only Scottie Scheffler and Tommy Fleetwood.
OPEN D’ITALIA — DP WORLD TOUR
Patrick Reed — 14/1 each way (5 places) 1pt each way
A rare DP World Tour selection, made on current form alone. Reed leads the Race to Dubai heading into this event off the back of two wins and a runner-up in his last three starts, and he shares favouritism in this field. He also has course experience here, having made the cut comfortably the last time the event was played at this venue.
SUMMARY
Seven selections across two tours this week — the bulk of the card at the Travelers Championship, plus a value-driven outing in Italy with Patrick Reed. Full odds, EW terms and the running P&L are always on the Substack site. Subscribe for free!
Min Woo Lee