The PGA Tour’s CJ Cup Byron Nelson gets underway Thursday at TPC Craig Ranch, and our AI-powered analysis has identified two outright plays and a first round leader pick worth serious consideration.

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TPC Craig Ranch consistently rewards accuracy over raw distance — five years of data point firmly in one direction. Approach play and driving accuracy are the metrics that matter here, not how far you hit it. Winning scores are deep — mid-to-high twenties under par — so we need players who can sustain scoring across four rounds.

Si Woo Kim — 14/1 EW, 5 places (1pt each way, 2 total) The standout value in the field beyond the obvious favourite. Si Woo’s strokes gained profile is second only to Scheffler in this entire field — his approach play and ball-striking metrics are perfectly aligned with what TPC Craig Ranch demands. He’s a previous winner at this venue and he draws the early wave on Thursday, the ideal conditions in Texas. At 14/1 with five places on offer this is our headline selection.

Jordan Spieth — 16/1 EW, 5 places (1pt each way, 2 total) A Texas native in his home state, and the data backs up the intuition. Strong approach play, balanced strokes gained profile, and a proven record in Texas events across his career. Spieth’s ceiling when his short game clicks is as high as anyone in this field. Five places at 16/1 gives excellent each-way coverage. Worth ensuring the best available price as this one may shorten.

Keith Mitchell FRL (First Round Leader) — 45/1 EW, 6 places (1pt each way, 2 total) The first round leader pick is built around one key factor — Mitchell tees off at 07:11, one of the earliest slots in the entire field. In Texas in May, morning conditions are significantly calmer and cooler than the afternoon. His strokes gained profile fits — solid off the tee, strong iron play — and he’s a known fast starter who historically over-performs in opening rounds. Six places at 1/5 gives that extra safety net. The extra place is the reason to seek out the best terms on this one.

Glory Double — Mitchell FRL + Si Woo Kim (0.25pt each way, 0.5 total) For those interested in the combined selection, some platforms offer this as a linked double at around 503/1. Most providers no longer offer this market so availability is limited — worth checking before Thursday morning.

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