What a week it’s been! Four winners from the last seven horse racing bets, running P&L at +12.17pts since re-starting tracking — and today we’ve got two of the biggest races in the racing calendar. Here are my four picks.

2000 Guineas — Newmarket 3:35

Distant Storm — 9/2 Each Way (4 places) My main pick of the day. Charlie Appleby has won three of the last five Guineas and has trained this horse specifically for today off the back of some impressive performances last year. Fresh, ready, and in the hands of one of the best trainers in the business for this race.

Needle Match — 18/1 Each Way (4 places) The draw out of stall one is a negative but I’m not put off at this price. Tom Marquand takes the ride which is a real positive, and he ran well here last year. At 18/1 each way this is a proper each way punt — if it fires it’s a big day.

Kentucky Derby — Churchill Downs 11:57 (BST)

Commandment — 4/1 The standout pick of the day. Four wins on the bounce, loves Churchill Downs, loves the distance, and a decent draw. Every box ticked — this is the one I want most.

Danon Bourbon — 12/1 Each Way (4 places) The outside play. Overnight money has come in which is always encouraging. Japanese-trained horse who has performed brilliantly at home — the question is whether he can replicate it on American soil. We think he can. And we are in the home of bourbon after all!

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